土地利用环境影响评价指标体系研究--以新疆策勒绿洲为例

利用地学遥感信息定性、定量分析和统计分析相结合的方法,研究半个世纪以来塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲的土地利用变化,探讨绿洲荒漠这一矛盾体之间的相互转化的动态时空过程、特征和机制,这是保护干旱区生态环境、促进绿洲经济与环境协调发展的重要举措.针对干旱区土地利用变化对环境影响定量研究指标体系与研究方法中优化模型所涉及到的关于地学遥感、自然资源、社会经济、环境指标体系进行深入分析,并给出了基本的量化研究方法.     

International Trade and Growth: An Overview Using the New Growth Theory

An overview of the new growth theory is provided from both an analytical and empirical perspective. Following a historical outline and a brief analytical sketch of the R&D-based models, the results from fitting two structural models to data are presented. Results show the relative impacts on growth from trade and R&D-based policies including technological spillovers from trade. The mechanism of intersectoral adjustments to the long-run growth path is also discussed. Insights provided by the theory are related to agriculture from the view of agriculture in the context of the broader economy within which it must compete for resources, and in terms of growth in agricultural factor productivity as evidenced by the recent growth in genetic engineering.     

Imperfect Labor Mobility and Unemployment in LDCs: Reply

In a recent paper (Parai and Beladi 1997; PB hereafter), we have analyzed the implications of growth and trade policies for a small open economy facing imperfect labor mobility and unemployment of the Harris-Todaro variety. We have used the Casas (1984) specification of the labor immobility phenomenon for a Harris-Todaro type economy, and have shown that most of the results in Harris-Todaro framework remain unaltered even under imperfect labor mobility, provided that the elasticity of labor mobility parameter exceeds a critical minimum value. On the optimal tariff issue, Gilbert and Mikic (1997; GM hereafter) find our results counterconventional. In GM's view, the nonconventional result in PB is due to our simplification of the labor mobility specification given by Casas. In this note, we offer our response to GM's comments.     

Urban unemployment, informal sector and development policies

We analyze the effects of wage subsidy policies on unemployment and welfare in the model that is characterized by the existence of both open unemployment and the informal sector that producesfinal goods. Our main findings are as follows. Wage subsidies to the agricultural and informal sectors increase welfare and decrease urban unemployment. The effects of a wage subsidy to manufacturing sector on welfare and unemployment are conditional. We identify some sufficient conditions for the definite results and interpret them.     

Emigration,Finite Changes and Wage Inequality

This article shows that large outmigration of labor leads to finite changes in the structure of production at source. We argue that sectors may vanish as they cannot pay higher wages consequent to emigration. We also inquire whether emigration of one type of labor hurts the other non‐emigrating type in this setup. Various situations when real incomes of the emigrating and the non‐emigrating types do not move together are demonstrated. This generalizes some of the existing results in the literature. In particular, emigration can lead to a drastic change in the degree of inequality depending on which of the sectors survive in the postemigration regime.     

Marginal risk aversion and preferences in a betting market

An individual's behavioural attitudes toward variance and non-symmetry in the payoff distributions of pari-mutuel gambles are empirically examined using the von Neumann - Morgenstern expected utility of wealth paradigm. Preferences over payoff distributions for a representative bettor are estimated from observed payoffs at a greyhound racetrack. The results indicate that the representative bettor exhibits increasing absolute risk aversion and, given that the representative bettor is locally non-satiated with regard to wealth, exhibits preference for variance and aversion to positive skewness in the payoff distributions of the gambles examined.     

Ethical Principles that Make the World and its Economy More Equal

Abstract

No doubt, the global economic (and political) structure is very unequal. The paper begins by demonstrating the various dimensions of this inequality as they relate to economic measures such as per capita GDP, degree of consumption and ownership, health measures, education, and power and influence in various global organizations such as the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization (WTO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and others. Next, the paper, supporting a more equal global economic and political structure, investigates the various instruments in welfare economies and ethics theory that can be utilized to justify a sort of distributional change that could lead to more global equality. Finding various economic and ethical instruments associated with utilitarianism, Pareto Optimality and the Hicks–Kaldor compensation test less than satisfactory in dealing with and advocating sufficient global distributional changes, we will investigate ethical principles developed by John Rawls in both his 1971 The Theory of Justice and his 1999 The Law of Peoples, Sen's capability approach, the debate between Rawls and Sen regarding their ethical principles, and whether or not those ethical principles can justify necessary global distributional changes. As we will argue, although the principles developed by Sen and Rawls can be utilized to justify global distributional changes to a degree, they cannot advocate a global difference principle that can justify sufficient global distributional changes. Attempt is made to develop a global difference principle that can justify and advocate more drastic distributional changes.     

Devaluation and The Balance of Trade: A Synthesis of Monetary and Elasticity Approaches

The elasticities and monetary approaches to balance of trade and balance of payments give different predictions about the effects of changes in exchange rates on the trade balance and balance of payments. This paper, using a theoretical model, supports the arguments that elasticities and monetary approaches to balance of payments are complementary theories since each is merely a fragment of a larger system. It was shown that the short run effects of devaluation are those produced by the elasticities approach and the long run effects are those implies by the monetary approach. [431]     

On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.     

Financial Innovation,Deposit Deregulation,and the US M1-GNP Link

This paper considers the effect of financial liberalization on aggregate consumption, with a special focus on Taiwan, which has sustained a high savings rate and a rapid rate of economic growth under financial dualism, but has undertaken financial liberalization since the 1980s, leading to an expansion of the formal financial sector. The paper finds that, because of an active informal financial sector, consumers in Taiwan are less credit constrained than in other developing countries. However, the expansion of the formal financial sector has contributed to some relaxation of consumer credit constraints and thereby changes in the income and interest elasticities of consumption. It also has brought about a higher consumption growth rate, offsetting at least partially the positive growth effect of financial liberalization, which helps improve the efficiency in finanacial intermediation.